Intelligent System to Support Judgmental Business Forecasting: The Case of Unconstraint Hotel Room Demand
|International Journal of Computer Science and Engineering|
|© 2014 by SSRG - IJCSE Journal|
|Volume 1 Issue 8|
|Year of Publication : 2014|
|Authors : C.Premila Rosy, R. Ponnusamy|
C.Premila Rosy, R. Ponnusamy, "Intelligent System to Support Judgmental Business Forecasting: The Case of Unconstraint Hotel Room Demand" SSRG International Journal of Computer Science and Engineering 1.8 (2014): 1-5.
C.Premila Rosy, R. Ponnusamy, (2014). Intelligent System to Support Judgmental Business Forecasting: The Case of Unconstraint Hotel Room Demand. SSRG International Journal of Computer Science and Engineering 1.8, 1-5.
In this paper, we describe the research and development of a fuzzy expert system and Economic system are characterized by increasing uncertainty in their dynamics hotel room demands. This increasing uncertainty is likely to incur bad decisions that can be costly in financial terms. This makes forecasting of uncertain economic variables an instrumental activity in any organization. This paper takes the hotel industry as a practical application of forecasting using the Holt-Winter method. The problem here is to forecast the uncertain demand for room at a hotel for each arrival dat. Forecasting is part of the revenue management system whose objective is to maximize the revenue by making decisions regarding when to make room available for customers and at what price .the forecast approach discussed in this paper is based on quantitative models and does satisfactory for certain days this is not the case for other arrival days. It is believed that human judgment when dealing with external event that may affect the variables begins forecasted. Actual data from a hotel are used to illustrate the forecasting mechanism.
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Fuzzy expert system, Forecasting, Hotel Industry, Economic revenue management system, Holt-Winter approach