Citation :

Nitesh Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar, "Changing Paradigms of Horticulture in Cold Deserts: A Decomposition and Regression Analysis of Apple Cultivation in Lahaul-Spiti(2010-2024)," International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 1-6, 2026. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V13I6P101

Abstract

This study analysed the growth trends and production patterns of the apple crop in the Lahaul-Spiti district of Himachal Pradesh over the period from 2010-11 to 2024-25. Using secondary data, the trends in Area, Production, and yield (productivity) were examined using Compound Growth Rate (CGR), instability index, decomposition analysis, and log-log regression analysis. The CGR was found high in Yield (40.76%), followed by Production (13.11%), and Area (2.09%), whereas low instability was found in Area, and high instability was found in Production and Yield. The decomposition analysis indicates that the yield effect emerges as the key driver of production growth, followed by the interaction effect and area effect, respectively. On the other hand, the log-log regression analysis result illustrates that the elasticity of output with respect to Area remains high and statistically significant, suggesting the strong elasticity of output to acreage expansion. This apparent contradiction can be explained by the biological lag of perennial crops such as apples. In the initial stages of these crops, it contributes minimally to output, which leads to slow growth. Nonetheless, as the tree achieves maturity, it accelerates yield as well as production growth. The study concludes that while the yield improvement has been the major contributor to the long-term production growth, the area expansion plays a crucial role in the short run. Therefore, the balanced approach should be the centre of focus, emphasizing the role of area expansion as well as yield improvement for the sustainable development of the apple sector in the Lahaul-Spiti district.

Keywords

Apple Cultivation, Lahaul-Spiti, Decomposition Analysis, Regression.

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