Standard Modeling of the Food Gap of Chickpeas Crop in Syria and Levels Forecasting

International Journal of Agriculture & Environmental Science

© 2019 by SSRG - IJAES Journal

Volume 6 Issue 2

Year of Publication : 2019

Authors : M.Alawee Ali and Dr. Ibrahim Hamdan Saqr and Dr.Mohamed Mahmoud

10.14445/23942568/IJAES-V6I2P110

How to Cite?

M.Alawee Ali and Dr. Ibrahim Hamdan Saqr and Dr.Mohamed Mahmoud, "Standard Modeling of the Food Gap of Chickpeas Crop in Syria and Levels Forecasting," SSRG International Journal of Agriculture & Environmental Science, vol. 6,  no. 2, pp. 50-53, 2019. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23942568/IJAES-V6I2P110

Abstract:

This research sheds light upon the topic of the food gap of chickpeas crops in Syria ,with the purpose of laying out the proper standard model for the food gap for this crop, and forecasting their levels through 2025, utilizing the descriptive analytic method , standard quantitative analysis , and resorting to secondary data taken from official and non-official data with the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, Central Bureau for Statistics, and data of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the National Center for Agricultural Policies, Arab Monetary Fund, International Trade Organization, and functionalizing Box et Jenkins models to forecast food gap levels. It was found out that the prospective values of the food gap (deficit) for the chickpeas will keep the same value , the matter which necessitates importing circa 15.8 thousand tons yearly over the years to come (2019-2025), using ARIMA (0,1,2) model.

Keywords:

food gap, crop, chickpeas, forecasting

References:

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