Holt-Winter Forecasting Method for Inflow and Outflow of Bank Indonesia in Riau

International Journal of Economics and Management Studies

© 2021 by SSRG - IJEMS Journal

Volume 8 Issue 7

Year of Publication : 2021

Authors : Abdul Rahman, Dyah Alfa Sa'adah Al-adawiyyah, Muliana, Syil Viya Rivika, Arisman Adnan, Rado Yendra

10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V8I7P108

How to Cite?

Abdul Rahman, Dyah Alfa Sa'adah Al-adawiyyah, Muliana, Syil Viya Rivika, Arisman Adnan, Rado Yendra, "Holt-Winter Forecasting Method for Inflow and Outflow of Bank Indonesia in Riau," SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, vol. 8,  no. 7, pp. 71-76, 2021. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V8I7P108

Abstract:

This article discusses the use of the Holt-Winter method numerically in forecasting the circulation of real money in the community carried out by the Regional Representative Office of Bank Indonesia in Riau Province, Indonesia, from 2008 to 2020, which is the inflow and outflow of real money. Inflow and outflow of real money are monthly time-series data that are thought to be influenced by time. In this study, there are several forecasting methods that can be used to forecast inflow and outflow: additive, multiplicative, Holt-Winter additive, and Holt-Winter multiplicative models. Then, the identification of seasonal variations is carried out to choose the right forecasting method. Therefore, the additive Holt-Winter forecasting method for inflow and multiplicative Holt-Winter forecasting for outflow is obtained.

Keywords:

Forecasting Method, Inflow, Outflow, additive model, multiplicative model, trend, seasonal, Holt-Winter.

References:

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