Load Forecasting Investigation for Efficient Photovoltaic Design in Owerri Metropolis

International Journal of Electrical and Electronics Engineering

© 2023 by SSRG - IJEEE Journal

Volume 10 Issue 6

Year of Publication : 2023

Authors : Okwe Gerald, Akwukwaegbu Isdore, Nosiri Onyebuchi, Obichere John Kennedy, Olubiwe Mathew, Okozi Samuel, Nwokonkwo Obi Chukwuemeka

10.14445/23488379/IJEEE-V10I6P111

How to Cite?

Okwe Gerald, Akwukwaegbu Isdore, Nosiri Onyebuchi, Obichere John Kennedy, Olubiwe Mathew, Okozi Samuel, Nwokonkwo Obi Chukwuemeka, "Load Forecasting Investigation for Efficient Photovoltaic Design in Owerri Metropolis," SSRG International Journal of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, vol. 10,  no. 6, pp. 106-113, 2023. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23488379/IJEEE-V10I6P111

Abstract:

The quest towards achieving an alternative power supply in Nigeria to augment the depleted conventional fossil fuel source that is environmentally hostile and which never satisfies the energy needs of consumers necessitated this research. This paper focuses on load forecasting investigation for efficient photovoltaic design within the Owerri metropolis for ten years projected period (2020-2030). Two load forecasting techniques, linear regression and exponential smoothing, were adopted during the load forecasting investigation and simulated with the Matlab program. The results were compared to select the most suitable technique for forecasting long-term load. The investigations showed that the exponential smoothing technique could not be applied because of its unstable behaviour, which does not accurately represent system performance for long-term load forecasting. The satisfactory performance of the least square technique (linear regression) with an increase in value of the forecasted load 13692kW in the year 2020 to 13702kW in 2030, respectively, makes it most appropriate for the analysis and hence was adopted.

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, Hybrid method, Least square regression, Load forecast, Solar sizing.

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