Evaluating the Influence of Climate Variation on Water Resources Elements of Bhima Fluvial Catchment Area, Maharashtra Utilizing CMIP6 Frameworks

International Journal of Civil Engineering

© 2025 by SSRG - IJCE Journal

Volume 12 Issue 5

Year of Publication : 2025

Authors : Mahesh S. Waghmare, Shrishaila S. Shahapure, Anandrao R Deshmukh

10.14445/23488352/IJCE-V12I5P119

How to Cite?

Mahesh S. Waghmare, Shrishaila S. Shahapure, Anandrao R Deshmukh, "Evaluating the Influence of Climate Variation on Water Resources Elements of Bhima Fluvial Catchment Area, Maharashtra Utilizing CMIP6 Frameworks," SSRG International Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 12,  no. 5, pp. 236-254, 2025. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23488352/IJCE-V12I5P119

Abstract:

The current investigation's focus is to analyse the implications of climate shift on the hydrological elements and parameters of the Bhima watershed through the application of the SWAT model. This investigation utilized three Climate Simulations from GCMs sourced from CMIP6. The three GCMs selected for future prediction and analysis were CNRM-CM6-1, GFDL-ESM-4, and Miroc6. The SWAT model simulated future periods of the basin’s hydrological processes under the SSP245 and SSP585 emissions routes. The outcome demonstrated an upward trend in streamflow within the anticipated time frame caused by the basin's increasing precipitation. Within the context of the SSP245 scenario, yearly precipitation is anticipated to rise by about 12%, 21.7%, and 31.5% during 2021, 2051, and 2081, respectively. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, the corresponding increases in precipitation are estimated to be around 10.87%, 35.41%, and 78.38%. The Chaskaman sub-basin is projected to undergo a significantly greater increase in average annual streamflow relative to the Pargaon sub-basin in both emission scenarios. The stream flow varies annually in the Chaskaman sub-basin are anticipated to range from -1.38% to 26.43% in 2021, -0.72% to 55.77% in 2051, and 14.74% to 126.42% in 2081, based on various General Circulation Models (GCMs). These findings could be valuable for policymakers in developing future management approaches for the Bhima River basin.

Keywords:

Bhima river basin, Climate changes, CMIP6, SWAT model, Water availability.

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