Reliability Analysis of Unstabilized Rammed Earth Under Wind Pressure: A Hybrid Monte Carlo and Artificial Neural Network Approach

International Journal of Civil Engineering

© 2025 by SSRG - IJCE Journal

Volume 12 Issue 6

Year of Publication : 2025

Authors : Chaymae Salhi, Mouna El Mkhalet, Nouzha Lamdouar

10.14445/23488352/IJCE-V12I6P113

How to Cite?

Chaymae Salhi, Mouna El Mkhalet, Nouzha Lamdouar, "Reliability Analysis of Unstabilized Rammed Earth Under Wind Pressure: A Hybrid Monte Carlo and Artificial Neural Network Approach," SSRG International Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 12,  no. 6, pp. 151-176, 2025. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23488352/IJCE-V12I6P113

Abstract:

Rammed Earth (RE) is recognized as a sustainable construction material with minimal environmental impact, yet its structural reliability under lateral wind forces remains underexplored. This study evaluates the reliability of Unstabilized Rammed Earth (URE) structures using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)-a combination applied for the first time in RE literature. MCS was performed with 500,000 iterations to assess the structural reliability of URE and generate a dataset for ANN-based prediction of the reliability index. The analysis incorporated random variables, including compressive strength, density, roof weight and wind speed. To enhance the robustness of the MCS analysis, 95% confidence intervals for each estimated probability of failure were also computed using the Wilson score method, revealing consistently narrow bounds, which underscore the statistical stability of the simulation outcomes. The results of the MCS indicate that a wall thickness of 0.35 m satisfies the reliability requirements for the evaluated compressive strengths, whereas a thickness of 0.2 m is inadequate. The ANN model, trained on the MCS-derived dataset, achieved a strong performance with a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.023 and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.853, further confirmed through 10-fold cross-validation.

Keywords:

Unstabilized Rammed Earth, Structural Reliability, Monte Carlo Simulation, Artificial Neural Networks, Lateral wind forces.

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